Years ago, the great Sir John Templeton said, “The secret of my success is that I buy when everyone is selling, and I sell when everyone is buying.”

Let’s consider the optimism that exists everywhere at the moment.

Today, optimism on the U.S. equity markets has rarely, if ever, been this bullish. Two words: “All in!”

Valuations are extremely high. Forward coming returns are likely flat to negative over the coming years.

If there was ever a Sir John “sell when everyone is buying” moment, it’s now. If there was ever a time to hedge, it’s now. Down 50% to 60% remains a real risk. We may go higher… the Fed may decide to step in and buy equities. Don’t know. That’s the bet. Stay on your toes and keep top of mind that faith was bestowed on both Greenspan and Bernanke also, and that bullish Fed narrative lasted until confidence was lost.

All bubbles eventually pop.

#1 - Where am I going ?

Supreme Court Justice Joseph Blazevic had the reputation of being absent minded. One day on the bus out of Novaki to Karlovac, Joseph was studying a pending case when the conductor asked for his ticket. The jurist searched each pocket nervously, but to no avail.

"Don't be concerned, Mr. Justice Blazevic," the conductor said. "We know who you are. When you return to Novaki, you can send us a ticket at your convenience."

Joseph lowered his eyes and shook his head sadly. "Thank you, my good man, but you don't seem to understand the problem. It's not a question of weather I'll pay the fare. The problem is: Where am I going ?

" I want to thank me " and I wish you do the same for yourself. Healthy, happy and prosperous 2021 !

 I want to thank me.

I want to thank me for believing in me.

I want to thank me for doing this all hard work.

I want to thank me for having no days-off.

I want to thank me for for never quit.

I want to thank me for always being a giver and trying to give more than I receive.

I want to thank me for trying to do more right than wrong.

I want to thank me for just being me at all times.

In summary, it looks like things are going to be very interesting in the new year. For now, it is necessary to remain bullish, but alert.

The market is strong, as evidenced by new all-time highs in all four major indices this past week. Since price action is the most important indicator, the overall trend remains bullish as long as SP-500 holds above support.

There is a short-term support at 3725. Below that, there are two important support areas, the first is at 3630-3650, and the second is at 3550.

So, what could possibly go wrong? Well, there are plenty of sell signals that could be setting up.

"Trust your gut."

Don’t do what you know on a gut level to be the wrong thing to do. Don’t stay when you know you should go or go when you know you should stay. Don’t fight when you should hold steady or hold steady when you should fight. Don’t focus on the short-term fun instead of the long-term fall out. Don’t surrender all your joy for an idea you used to have about yourself that isn’t true anymore. Don’t seek joy at all costs.

I know it’s hard to know what to do when you have a conflicting set of emotions and desires, but it’s not as hard as we pretend it is. Saying it’s hard is ultimately a justification to do whatever seems like the easiest thing to do—have the affair, stay at that horrible job, end a friendship over a slight, keep loving someone who treats you terribly. I don’t think there’s a single dumbass thing I’ve done in my adult life that I didn’t know was a dumbass thing to do while I was doing it. Even when I justified it to myself—as I did every damn time—the truest part of me knew I was doing the wrong thing. Always.

As the years pass, I’m learning how to better trust my gut and not do the wrong thing, but every so often I get a harsh reminder that I’ve still got work to do.

In summary, there are lots of crosscurrents right now. The SP-500 support area at 3630- 3650 has held so far. The SP-500 chart remains bullish and will stay bullish until it breaks 3550 area.

Violent downswings happening into Monday morning's stock market opening. We'll see what happens from here on. Lots of news to fuel the fire. Staying cautious until this sort itself out.

The major indices - $SPX, $NDX, $DJX, and $RUT - are all at new all-time intraday and closing highs now. Clearly, this market has momentum.

We have to remember that markets look the best at their high and the worst at their low. The market is overbought, but overbought doesn't mean "sell".

 Both 200-day and 50-day moving averages are rising. Uptrend continues for now.

At issue now is whether we are witnessing another mild, one-off dip or, instead, the beginning of a larger market correction.

In summary, the market is overbought and getting more so almost every day.

Over the past three days, SP-500 finally managed to break out to new all-time closing and intraday highs. Thus, the SP-500 chart is bullish, as there is no classical resistance -- by definition -- when it is at all-time highs.

The reason people don’t make big money in markets is because they chicken out too soon. The reason people blow up their accounts is because they don’t chicken out fast enough.

 "The secret to winning is learning how to lose.

That is, learning to bounce back from failure and disappointment—undeterred—and continuing to steadily march toward your potential.

Your response to failure determines your capacity for success."

"One very important skill great traders have is the ability to gauge when to step on the gas and get aggressive and when to ride the brake or even sit out completely. Most of the time you should not be trading very aggressively. Trading requires a lot of patience and stalking."

In a good trading environment stops will hold on balance while breakouts get away from you and you wish you had bought more. In a poor environment, prices will slice through stops, slippage is larger than normal and on balance you struggle to make progress or show loss.

In summary, the broad market chart remains bullish and will continue to be bullish as long as SP-500 continues to close above 3500.

We are entering a seasonally bullish period for the market, between Thanksgiving and the new year. On average, the Russell 2000 Index rises 2.8% over that time period, with SP-500 not far behind. There are exceptions, of course 2018 being the largest exception. 

"A most beneficial use of time is silent meditation, while searching for guidance from within."

We all experience rare moments when a blinding revelation comes to us, when we suddenly see things differently than ever before. Usually, however, we learn the truth about ourselves gradually, over long periods of time, from quiet introspection. We are all spiritual, but some of us have learned to tap more effectively into the great strength that resides in the spiritual portion of ourselves. The spirit is not boisterous and noisy. Getting in touch with your spiritual self demands tranquility and solitude. Make sure you dedicate a portion of every day to thought and study, to think and reflect upon your life. Choose a time and place that best allow you to relax your mind and devote your thoughts to reflection.

Extreme Greed. Fear & Greed Index is at 91.

 

"Not enough is said about the power of thinking about one topic for a long period of time. If you revisit a topic continually for a few years, most problems (and many solutions) will occur to you at some point. Expertise can be the gradual accumulation of many modest insights."

In summary, the SP-500 chart looks bullish and will stay bullish unless SP-500 closes below 3500.

 The broad market, as measured by SP-500, finally reached a new all-time closing high this week on Tuesday, November 16th. It was unable to hold that level and has now fallen back a bit. In fact, it has closed back below the old September highs of 3588.