Today is officially three months before US election. Stocks have a good record, being right 87% of the time since Great Depression, of predicting who is going to win in November.

If stocks are up, the incumbent party wins. |If stocks are down, the incumbent party tends to lose.

In summary, the market seems a bit tired, but SP continues to hold above support. So the bulls remain in charge unless SP breaks down below support at 3130.

In summary, the market is deciding where to go from here to make a strong directional move. Markets move violently to their place, and calmly in place. For now that is a trading range market until one camp or the other can get enough momentum going to engineer a breakout.

The market is still bullish unless the support is broken.

Market still sidways, but don't complain:

“Sister, there are people who went to sleep all over the world last night, poor and rich and white and black, but they will never wake again. Sister, those who expected to rise did not, their beds became their cooling boards, and their blankets became their winding sheets. And those dead folks would give anything, anything at all for just five minutes of this... So you watch yourself about complaining, Sister. What you're supposed to do when you don't like a thing is change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Don't complain.”

Ready to take off ?

Which way ? One way or the other, but be ready for a large directional move when we do break out. On your long equity positions raise stops and enjoy the ride.

Just about every asset across the board has put in reversal or outside day down. If we don't see follow through with strong momentum to the downside, then we could have a bear trap.

QQQ

 Bearish divergence, divergences against the trend are usually short lived, but worth noticing in the context, also often after three pushes up there is an ABC formation. Coming week will be an important tell one way or the other.

After a historic capitulation low, commodities appear to be firming and we could see early stages of a bull market rally across the board in commodities.

Happy Canada Day !

Maximus

Ninja

Nasdaq, yesterday's low is a support / major abort area if it doesn't hold. Watch to see if we can explode higher.

We can see now cumulative advance-decline lines making lower lows and lower highs. Would need a close below 3000 to confirm a bearish tilt, until then it's all "under the hood."

The market has stalled out recently. In the near-term, the bulls would like to see a close of the gap on the island, while the bears are looking for a breakdown below support. From a longer-term perspective, the picture is still one of caution, as the bulls won't fully be in charge until VIX closes below its 200-day moving average.

In summary, a more bearish outlook is justified as long as VIX remains above its 200- day moving average and as long as that island reversal is in place on the SP-500 chart.

"History has shown, and logic dictates, that if the system doesn’t strive to create equal opportunity for everyone who is able to work and to provide basic support for everyone who is not, the system will inevitably experience some form of revolution."

I had hoped for a reflation trade across commodities to have some legs, but its worth noting the five day risk / adjusted returns are weighted to the downside.

"If life hands you a lemon, don’t complain, but instead make lemonade to sell to those who are thirsty from complaining."

Wally Amos, the man whom many consider to be the father of the gourmet cookie industry, has turned lemons into lemonade so often in his life that in his official portrait he holds a pitcher in one hand and a glass of lemonade in the other. A perennial optimist, Amos refuses to acknowledge that obstacles are anything other than stepping-stones to success. In a career that has spanned several decades, he has made it to the pinnacle of success several times, only to lose everything and be forced to start over. But he’s never lost faith. “You have to have the trust and faith to let go and not agonize,” he says. “Don’t waste your time worrying. Worry is not preparation. Analyze the situation and focus on solutions. There is always an answer.”

For now, it's just a very sharp pullback in what is still a rising trend on the SP-500 chart. The bears have more work to do if they want to take control.

The overbought conditions intensified this past week with a couple of huge up days on June 5th and 8th, but then exploded into one of the worst down days in history on June 11th. The wild ride seems destined to continue.

Wild ride, it was starting to get ugly today, but then...