...nobody should be under the perception that [commodity futures] can't go below zero...We've seen other commodities go below zero in the past...We have to do things to allow the market to go to a price [that] is reflecting the fundamentals of the product...The futures market worked to perfection...small retail investors...need to make sure they understand the rules... - CME

Why can’t wine prices go below zero ?

"In bull markets stocks don't go down on bad news."

 For the SP 500, today was the 9th day in the past 10 days, the day session gaped and remained on that side of unchanged. That has NEVER happened before. We've seen 8 of 10 but never 9 of 10. The interesting part is we've gone nowhere in the 10 days and are right in the middle of that range. 

"The market is the sum total of the wisdom and the ignorance of all of those who deal in it and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned much indeed."

US Futures Crude Oil Fall Below Zero For The First Time In History

" Anyone who doesn't change his mind often is dramatically underestimating the complexities in the world we live in. "

Spying the SPY

This is a bearish formation, but if we don't break down and go sideways for a while, then it's possible we can go higher from here.

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

“For all those against reopening the country until things are perfectly safe please educate yourself on what happened in the Great Depression. I have, you will be surprised at the death and destruction that came about, much greater than Covid 19 damage could be. Disease, starvation, suicide, family destruction, abuse, drug addiction and lost dreams. The mental depression and lost souls were staggering.”

Dow rallied 25% of the lows.

In 1929 the market rallied 50% before resuming downward in a secular bear market.

, but

"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."

"The wise trader and investor assimilates the data then acts accordingly. It is a real-time approach. Predictions are subject to great error. Those who stake their reputations on predictions often find themselves psychologically wedded to such predictions. Therefore should one make a prediction, one should always be ready to change their view on a dime. Price dictates such actions. If your stop is hit, you might be wrong. Move onto the next opportunity or circle back if a second or multiple entry points arise while the risk/reward remains favorable. The trade of a lifetime often comes every few weeks, especially near market lows. Stay nimble and open to all possibilities. "

Breadth and volatility are displaying characteristics that haven't been seen since 2011 or 2008. Therefore, while buy signals can be traded, we are continuing to be cautious.

                                                      chart to watch for clues

Watch Thomson Reuters Equally Weighted Commodities Index for clues.

Thomson Reuters Equally Weighted Commodities Index, will go miles towards telling us if we are headed towards very tough times or if the huge declines of late are actually in a bottoming process.
The index tracks a basket of 17 commodities, including cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, soybeans, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, platinum, silver, soybean oil, sugar and wheat.

The index has been headed south over the last nine years, reflecting general weakness in commodities. In 2009, a then-29-year-old support level held, indicating that the worst of the financial crisis was priced in.
It’s testing that level again now.If the index holds at 2009 support, it would suggest that lows are in play and the worst has already been priced into the markets. If the index breaks this 40-year support/resistance level, it would suggest that some really tough times are ahead.

"If we analyze a century worth of data, we will see that all crises were followed by major averages bottoming then moving higher which brought major buying opportunities."

In summary, cash or a "core" bearish position should still be held, but these short-term counter-trend buy signals can also be traded.

"A number of funds have a 60/40 stock/bond allocation rule. Since their stocks got hammered, the 60% has shrunk so these funds will have to buy stock to keep up with their 60/40 allocation, so we could see yet another up day in the major averages before the end of the quarter which would further improve the odds for a short-sale position succeeding, though in this time of crisis, some analysts have said this rule may be lifted."

'In 2008 there were two 20% or better bear market rallies before the market bottomed. In between 2000-2003 there were four, and in 1987 there was just one and it marked the bottom. The Dow is currently up 22% of the lows. The first rally off the 1987 crash lows was 27%.'

Remember to check up by phone on elderly or vulnerable family, friends and neighbors who may need our help.

“To be clear, language like ‘Chinese virus’ is racist...” 
Is it ?
“Put away the race card and get with the last century of naming viruses and flus after their point of origin: West Nile Virus, Zika Virus, Ebola Virus, German Measles, Spanish Flu, Marburg Virus, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Norovirus, Stockholm Syndrome, Lyme Disease” 

The market's main trend is down, so be short or be out, but we're closely watching for the market to get to the point where it can make a successful U turn, produce a short term buy signal and start an oversold rally.

SPY, quarterly view

NOW  
  
"It's a tug-o-war between:

=Super easy money, financial incentives, the low price of oil, and lower taxes
vs.
=Quarantines, corona containment, and damage to the global economy".