Interest rate futures continue to price 100% odds of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting on July 31.

Stocks edged lower for a second straight session today and today was the second lowest volume day of the year on NYSE.

“Optimistic people tend to succeed not simply because they believe everything will turn out right, but because the expectation of success makes them work harder. If you expect little, you will not be motivated even to try.”

"Recap July 1"

Risk appetite reigned, as an announced “trade truce” from this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Osaka helped the S&P 500 reach a fresh record close, while WTI crude edged back to $59 a barrel.  By the same token, Treasury yields rose across the curve, gold got smacked by 2% to finish at $1,384 an ounce, and the VIX fell to 14, its lowest close in nearly two months.   

                                              I miss my girl, Moonshine.

Start of a new quarter.

Best June performance for SP-500 since 1955, and the best DJ-30 performance for the month of June since 1938.

Stocks caught a solid bid, narrowing the week’s losses to 0.3% on the S&P 500 and leaving the broad index higher by more than 17% year-to-date through the second quarter, its best first half performance since 1997.

Hey !

End of quarter.

Yesterday was a tough day for momentum stocks especially software stocks which took the biggest hit of the day though a few stocks did make some minor gains. The last week in June is often tough as we end the quarter and have the Russell indexes rebalancing. The first few weeks in July are usually better with earnings starting around July 20th.

Gold since 1920

                                    Source: The Bloomberg

From the book: Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard

• “I never go against the long-term trend.”
• “You can’t predict the market any more than you can predict where the ball will drop during the next spin of a roulette wheel.”
• “...I would never bet on my fundamental ideas alone without confirmation from the actual price action of the underlying stock.”
• “Let the strength of the market tell you where to put your money, not your personal opinion…”
• “Markets are far more often correct than are personal opinions or even expert forecasts.”
• “If the stock doesn’t act as expected, that’s a major red flag.”
• “A stop-loss regime is essential.”
• “Inevitably, however, a good stop-loss practice will shake you out of some winning stocks.”

Another impressive rally in stocks pushed the S&P 500 to a fresh closing high, up 18% year-to-date.

 

So-called quadruple witching options expiration tomorrow could yield some early volatility.

Max, 10 weeks old. Yesterday was his first time out behind the house, waking by the river.

"Recap June 19"

The Fed didn’t cut rates, but price action suggested they may as well have. Most notable was another panic bid in short term Treasurys, as the two-year yield dived lower by 11 basis points to 1.74%, down from 2.39% two months ago.  Stocks enjoyed a late lift, with the S&P 500 drawing closer to its April 30 peak, and gold continued its hot streak by pushing to $1,360 an ounce, its highest since July 2016.  The VIX reversed early gains, falling 5% to 14.3.

One to watch, weakest of them all.

Today was the lightest volume day of the year for NYSE.

Hello ! My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius. They call me Max.

Risk on.

                                                  Now, the trend is up, no hedges on.

Fifth day up for stocks and half hedges taken off.

           The trend is still down, need other half hedges off to get into risk on mode.