Is The Bull Market Party Over?

Yes !

The future remains brighter than ever despite of social unrest due to tough economic times around the world

'Satoshi Nakamoto knew that governments and central banks are artificially constructed TTP (trusted third party) monopolies which was the inspiration behind bitcoin when he wrote "“I’ve been working on a new electronic cash system that’s fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party.” This is arguably the greatest invention in the history of humanity, not just because it propels existing paradigms into a much higher order of efficiency, but because it frees people from the shackles of government. It therefore comes as no surprise that the migration of top minds from their respective professions into the blockchain space well exceeds the migration witnessed during the internet boom in the 1990s.

The issue at hand is that different systems of government offer varying levels of freedoms but eventually devolve into concentrating power into the hands of the few who then use financial, judicial, and military means to control the many. The US is an oligarchy as is the UK and Canada even though on the surface they say otherwise. Such power structures could not exist under a decentralized form of government. Such decentralized governance would truly empower the individual far greater than any other system of government, past or present. The future remains brighter than ever despite amplified levels of social unrest due to tough economic times around the world'

An important trading session tomorrow.

The second quarter got off to an unpleasant start for the bulls, as the S&P 500 sank by more than 2% to close near the interim lows logged on Feb. 8, setting up an important session tomorrow with either a bounce or fresh lows.

One idea about an edge ?

Today, stocks were hammered, with the S&P 500 breaking to fresh lows into the bell to finish more than 2.5% in the red.

Treasurys were bid across the board to leave yields sharply lower. The dollar trended higher throughout the day to reverse overnight weakness.  The VIX jumped by more than 30%, and settled above 24, its highest close since the immediate aftermath of the short-vol-blowup on Feb. 13. 

The Fed is set to conclude its two-day meeting tomorrow, futures place the odds of a rate hike at 100%.

“Money of the mind is the broadest definition of money. It’s bounded only by the imagination.”

Bitcoin, which traded at less than $1,000 and nearly $20,000 at different points last year, has generally remained in a $7,000 to $11,000 per coin range in recent weeks.  Bloomberg notes that the narrower trading range has coincided with waning public interest:

 

Internet searches for ‘Bitcoin’ have plunged . . . Online searches for ‘bitcoin’ fell 82 percent from December highs, according to Google Trends. Tweets that mention the coin peaked Dec. 7, at 155,600, and are now down to about 63,000, BitInfoCharts says. And the number of bitcoin transactions is off 60 percent from its record on Dec. 13, according to Blockchain.info. 

market observations

While the global economy runs on QE-fumes suggesting growth, the economic engine seems to be, in reality, running on a couple cylinders in great need of an overhaul while central banks continue to pour fuel into the tank hoping for some continued measure of progress. Since 2016, major averages have corrected beyond a few percent just once. The fast bounce back to new highs suggests global QE will win the tug-o-war vs. higher rates in the U.S. 

market observations

Stocks caught a bid, with the S&P 500 extending its gain for the week to 1.8% so far.  Treasury yields ticked lower across the curve, and a stronger greenback pushed the Dollar Index back above 90 as today’s steel and aluminium tariff announcement featured exemptions for Canada and Mexico, as well as the possibility of other countries also getting a waiver. 

$change must begin with reprogramming of the mind$

The S&P 500 closed 6.66% away from the highs yesterday. After today is it 10.2% away and officially in a correction. February 2016 was last time it was in a correction. This is the first time in history the S&P 500 went from a new all-time high to 10% correction in 9 days or less.

Could another bounce in the price of Uncle Sam’s debts be in the cards?

 continuous contract, last 10 years

March T-Bond Futures

The market has gone 18 months without a 5% pullback, the longest in history. At some point, the market will pull back as profit-taking takes over. Until then enjoy the ride.

The US economy is in its third-longest expansion since 1854 and has been growing for eight years and seven months. Another 1.5 years of growth will make the expansion the longest one on record.

Market observations.

The streak is intact.  Stocks rallied from a shallow opening dip to leave the S&P 500 at its fifth straight record close to begin the year, while Treasurys finished little changed across the curve.  Crude oil caught a bid despite a stronger dollar, with WTI crude again testing $62/barrel.  Fourth quarter earnings season will soon get underway, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. set to report results on Friday. 

"Millions? Than what?" Happy New Year Everyone.

An American tourist was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked.
Inside the small boat were several large yellowfin tuna. The tourist complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.
The Mexican replied, “Only a little while.”
The tourist then asked, “Why didn’t you stay out longer and catch more fish?”
The Mexican said, “With this I have more than enough to support my family’s needs.”
The tourist then asked, “But what do you do with the rest of your time?”
The Mexican fisherman said, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy life.”
The tourist scoffed, ” I can help you. You should spend more time fishing; and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat: With the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats. Eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor; eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You could leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then Los Angeles and eventually New York where you could run your ever-expanding enterprise.”
The Mexican fisherman asked, “But, how long will this all take?”
The tourist replied, “15 to 20 years.”
“But what then?” asked the Mexican.
The tourist laughed and said, “That’s the best part. When the time is right you would sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions.”
“Millions?…Then what?”
The American said, “Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos.”

Most Useful & Universal Mental Models

So what is a mental model? It is a process or way of thinking for solving a problem through using a representation of the environment. Because there are different ways to represent the environment and use intuition, there are alternative mental models. Some are focused on specific tasks while others may be more general. 

The great chart below provides a number of examples of effective mental models. Some are easily employed for investment decisions while others may help with productivity and work flow.