A trader reflects on market strategies and personal optimization.
Friday, 2 March 2012
Thursday, 1 March 2012
Why You Win or Lose
Here's a lesson from the book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology
of Speculation.
This is an example of how the typical trader procrastinates when it comes to making a selling decision.
A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine, connected to the door, that he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can't open it again without going back to the box, which would scare away any turkeys lurking on the outside.
One day, he had a dozen turkeys in his box. Then one walked out, leaving eleven. "I should have pulled the string when there were twelve inside," he thought, "but maybe if I wait, he will walk back in."
While he was waiting for his twelfth turkey to return, two more turkeys walked out. "I should have been satisfied with the eleven," he thought. "If just one of them walks back, I will pull the string."
While he was waiting, three more turkeys walked out. Eventually, he was left empty-handed.
His problem was that he could not give up the idea that some of the original turkeys would return. This is the attitude of the typical trader who can't bring himself to sell at a loss. He keeps expecting the market and his position to recover.
The moral is: To reduce your market risk, stop counting turkeys.
This is an example of how the typical trader procrastinates when it comes to making a selling decision.
A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine, connected to the door, that he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can't open it again without going back to the box, which would scare away any turkeys lurking on the outside.
One day, he had a dozen turkeys in his box. Then one walked out, leaving eleven. "I should have pulled the string when there were twelve inside," he thought, "but maybe if I wait, he will walk back in."
While he was waiting for his twelfth turkey to return, two more turkeys walked out. "I should have been satisfied with the eleven," he thought. "If just one of them walks back, I will pull the string."
While he was waiting, three more turkeys walked out. Eventually, he was left empty-handed.
His problem was that he could not give up the idea that some of the original turkeys would return. This is the attitude of the typical trader who can't bring himself to sell at a loss. He keeps expecting the market and his position to recover.
The moral is: To reduce your market risk, stop counting turkeys.
Wednesday, 29 February 2012
what a beautiful snowy day__ Leap Day
CONCEIVE_BELIEVE_ACHIEVE
IN LIFE SOMETIMES WE NEED TO JUMP INTO THE UNKNOWN, TAKE ACTION AND TRUST OURSELVES THAT AT THE END EVERYTHING WILL BE OK
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
S&Ps cash monthly view with pivots
++1_2003+-+2_2012.jpg)
@_pay close attention to the resistance levels in a market moving up!
The up auction continues.
++20_09_2011+-+28_02_2012.jpg)
The up auction continues for now in spite of price stalling a bit at these levels.
Monday, 27 February 2012
Secrets to Success
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-0PrTkE5jG4#!
1.Trust yourself
2.Break the rules
3.Dont be afraid to fail
4.Don't listen to "no" sayers
5.Work your butt off
6.Give something back
Sunday, 26 February 2012
for the week ahead
++01_09_2011+-+24_02_2012.jpg)
While there is higher risk that we're entering consolidation period S&Ps cash $1300 - $1370 price action is not confirming that as of yet. Maybe this week things will change, but until they do the path of least resistance is upward.
The market is unpredictable by nature which is why the best is to stay focused on the price and what "it" does rather than what we think the price should do under the current conditions. The price is never too high or too low!
Thursday, 23 February 2012
S&Ps cash 60 min. view
++23_02_2012.jpg)
The up auction continues. Enjoy the ride and remember, it would not last forever!
market snapshot
DJIA 12984.69
Nasdaq 2956.98
S&P 500 1363.46
30-Year* 3.127%
Euro $1.3371
Nymex Crude $107.83
Wednesday, 22 February 2012
follow up on a Gold trade
++16_08_2011+-+23_02_2012.jpg)
@_ the up auction continues
NOTE _NOT AFTER THE FACT CHERY PICKING BS, BUT THIS FOLLOW UP IS GOING ON FROM THE TIMELY, ACTIONABLE BLOG:
WEDNESDAY, 25 JANUARY 2012
gold - daily downtrend line violated
Tuesday, 21 February 2012
follow up on a Gold trade
@__ buyable gap up, and continuation of the up auction continues after a short pause
for your research
@___GREEK DEAL WINNERS ? __ SWHC __ RGR
DOW HITS 13,000.00
note__for educational purposes only
Monday, 20 February 2012
++20_07_2011+-+17_02_2012.jpg)
++Week+14_2009+-+Week+7_2012.jpg)
Friday, 17 February 2012
when trading intraday
I suggest using smaller initial stops and look for trades with Risk Rewards
that are at 2:1 or higher. I personally do not take trades with initial stop
losses larger than three S&P points and I never take a trade with a Risk
Reward below 2:1 _ I am much more comfortable in the 3 or 4:1 area when intraday
trading. I don't find these trades that difficult to find once you get used to
looking for them and if I have to wait to find a trade that fits my acceptable
profile, that doesn't bother me at all. I just want to be consistently profitable and
it costs me nothing to wait for an acceptable trade. Patience and discipline are prerequisites for trading success.
Thursday, 16 February 2012
markets now
Up auction continues. S&Ps traded above it's eight day range and closed above it, which suggests strength, but as we know it's not the breakout but the follow through that matters.
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