SP-500 now.

daily view

1-hour view

10-min. view

If you have rode this move higher, take some profits. Reduce you risk some in front of the Fed decision. You can always reposition afterwards. If you miss some points, so be it. We are still in a big range and it isn't wise to push your luck too far. 

Greed & Fear

There is a little known element about Greed & Fear: Greed is actually a variant of Fear — the fear of missing the move higher, fear of leaving profits on the table, fear of losing clients, fear of lower income, fear of losing your job. Hence, when most people say that Fear & Greed drives the market, they are really saying FEAR drives the market in both directions. True Greed doesn’t come into the picture until we get to the stupid phase — think DotComs bubble 1999 or Housing bubble 2005.

The tone has changed.

I went long and my account was up, supporting my scenario, but I sold out at up 2.83% on the account and went into cash today at the end of the day. Just want to get a new perspective and be ready to go with the money flow rather then the story. Focus on the price action. We are still in a range. Big move is coming.

Bears will have their chance at the market tomorrow but the fact that the market continues to hold firm into the Fed must be recognized.

Going into Fed week !

We have unconfirmed patterns, head and shoulders, bear flag and possibly a channel, be on guard and make preserving your capital job #1. Focus on price action, I think this is going to be a pivotal week for the market. Big move is coming.

FYI

weekly time frame

100% in cash now.

I am taking a week off of trading and going to do some volunteer work. It's good for the soul.

Remember, it is very important to stay flexible in one's thinking and open to any new market technical developments.

See you here Sunday, September 18th when we'll take a look at the market and make a plan for the week ahead.

Volatile market with large swings continues.

weekly view

       daily view

                                                           hourly view with ATR signals

It does help to have a probability mindset.

Look at the formula bellow:

(AVG $ Win X WinRate) - (AVG $ Loss X LossRate) = Positive Result

Let's have a look behind the formula:

We derive the AVG $Win by dividing the positive '$' results

by the number of winning trades.

We derive the WinRate by dividing the number of winning

trades by the total number of trades.

We derive the AVG $ Loss by dividing the negative '$' results

by the number of losing trades.

We derive the Loss Rate by dividing the number of losing

trades by the total number of trades.

If we consider the formula, we shall find all the elements of a probability mindset The first thing to notice is that you determine success or failure over the long-term rather than on the result of any one trade. Focus on achieving consistent long-term results. You do not live or die on any single trade. Focus on achieving a robust decision-making process. Take advantage of market conditions by all means, but never confuse being good with being lucky

Trading secret !

                                       Successful trading requires Faith !
We trade our beliefs not the market, so we better know what we believe about the market before we start trading it !

The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods.

Trading principles that work,

2. Ride your winners
3. Cut your losses short
4.Use stops
5.Manage your money so you can stay in the game
6.Stick to one methodology, system and/or a plan

Very simple !

Performance in complex or competitive endeavors often follows a sine curve.

The Performance Cycle 

Awareness !

Looking at the week ahead.

Last week we have identified potential bear flag which has been playing out so far. See blog August 28. Four day weeks are usually very challenging and I don't expect this one to be different. Be short or be in cash is the game now. Not much to say but the line of least resistance is downward. Exercise self discipline, this means that you will do your market studies every day, thoroughly and religiously, and that you will follow the rules of successful trading. Remember, markets are never too high or too low and be aware of your emotions of fear and greed. Indecision of the market participants and volatility is expected to continue.
All the best in the week ahead !

interesting

Nasdaq 100 tested 50 day moving average.

Isolating strong stocks when the market is weakest is a very simple idea that works. When most everything in the market is getting trashed, look for the stocks that refuse to go down. There has to be a reason for it. When the market resolves itself back to the upside, these are the names that will potentially become the strongest stocks very quickly.

First, overall breath has improved enough and there are some buy set ups showing up.
I see 50 day test across the board.
Second, remember, any significant selling here would change the picture quickly.
Third, go day by day and stay flexible and focused on your plan and execution.

Looking at the week ahead.

Stay alert and patient here as the market is chewing and spiting lots of traders now. For the week ahead just stay patient and focused on risk control if you are going to get engaged. Studies suggesting higher than normal volatility to continue.

Trading range.

I am impressed with the market this week as yesterday morning it squeezed out the shorts at the open and this morning is scared out the nervous longs. Those who are trading are chasing which adds scale to these swings.

Turnaround Tuesday.

Today we had a powerful rally and a first step necessary to provide a clue that the lows have some chance of holding. As we always do in these reversals, we will need to see additional follow through for confirmation, and we want to see robust performance in leading stocks accompanying the follow through day.

P.G. Trading Tribe starting in September 2011.

The Trading Tribe

is an association of people who commit to excellence,

personal growth, and supporting and receiving support from each other.

The members of the Trading Tribe 

trade roles, becoming, in turn senders and receivers for each other.

Mastery Includes The Trading Tribe Process. Going with the Trend. Right Livelihood. Support Network. Contributing to Others www.tradingtribe.com for more info about the TTP process go to http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TT_Process/index.htm  any questions regarding P.G. Tribe, email mtci@telus.net