Trend is still up. Keep stops tight and enjoy the ride.

Since yields peaked in 1981, that has never happened.

Earlier this year, 10 year yields traded below the low of last year (1.64%), and are currently above last year’s high (2.50%). Should they close above 2.50%, it would represent a bullish outside year for yields. Since yields peaked in 1981, that has never happened. That would add to the thesis that we have seen an end to the secular bull market in bonds.

Read the original article on The Reformed Broker. 
http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/12/19/bond-yields-just-did-something-they-havent-done-in-35-years/

NNA

Trend is still up. Tighten stops and enjoy the ride.

Ready to play?

recovery plan

 "What are you doing on evenings and weekends that renews you?  Of the four main sources of well-being, which ones are you cultivating in your time away from markets:

*  Happiness, and doing things that are fun and enjoyable
*  Satisfaction, and doing things that are meaningful
*  Energy, and doing things that energize you mentally and physically
*  Relationships, and doing things that bring you closer to the ones you care about

A good recovery plan should include healthy eating, high quality sleep, and activities that check all four of the boxes above.  

It's the watering you do at night and on weekends and holidays that allows your career to blossom during the work day."

Remember How Far You Have Come

follow up: FCX

FCX

                                16 month H&S formation

Trend is now up. Enjoy the ride.

Sign that globalization has reached its apex, and we are now going the other way.

We may be entering an incredible era for investing.

Now, we may be entering an incredible era for investing – after a long slog. And an opportunity for average investors to make up ground on the meager wealth creation and retirement savings opportunities of the past decade or more. 

today is the day, US Election 2016

Regardless of who wins the election, there will be a big reaction in the markets, but nobody can predict the size or the direction.

Trend is still down. Enjoy the ride.

So ahead of the Fed tomorrow and the U.S. election results next week, the markets are pricing in a little more risk today.  A broad "risk-off" day means stocks go lower, yields lower, crude oil lower, gold higher and the VIX (a market measure of uncertainty) higher.

"And I always thought this would be The land of milk and honey Oh but I came to find out That it's all hate and money"

follow up: USDJPY

"While it is assumed markets cannot possibly crash ahead of the November 8 elections, if some material news announcement were to hit causing big money to exit, there is little "forces" such as the alleged plunge protection team could do to prop markets."

"Since July, the S&P 500 has traded in the shallowest band in its entire 59-year trading history. It has traded in an even more flat manner than in 1976 when it typically corrected no more than 4-5%, an unprecedented period which lasted 7 1/2 months."

follow up: USDJPY

“…Human nature never changes. Therefore, the stock market never changes. Only the faces, the pockets, the suckers, and the manipulators, the wars, the disasters and the technologies change. The market itself never changes. How can it? Human nature never changes, and human nature runs the market – not reason, not economics, and certainly not logic. It is our human emotions that drive the market, as they do most other things on this planet.”

You are not so smart.

survivorship-bias

the story remains the same

Led Zeppelin

contemplating

"Focus on whether what you are dong is right, not on the random nature of any single trade’s outcome."

 symmetrical triangle is an inherently unstable pattern and you must manage your risk carefully and pick your trades with care

USDJYP

                               weekly view ~  possible 16-week symmetrical triangle bottom

Bond and Rates

        evidence suggests Fed caution.....election may dominate Fed action

Your words and thoughts have physical power by Will Smith

2016 Nobel Prize In Literature ~ Bob Dylan

Global Macro Themes October 2016

                                        click on the chart to enlarge

possibly going sideways until election 2016

                               Trend is still down. Enjoy the ride.

The reason momentum outperforms in the long run is because it fails in the short run.

http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-most-overlooked-trait-of-investing-success/

Trend is still down. Enjoy the ride.

trading strategies that work now ~ LN - TWLO

samples of buying logical support levels and unloading today into highs

trading strategies that work now

"Two major strategies that have yielded good stock profits even in these QE-manipulated markets"

Markets have a natural rhythm to them, an ebb and flow if you will. In today's markets, we have long advocated 1) buying on constructive weakness and 2) selling into strength should the stock price get ahead of itself. We run our screens throughout the trading day in search of such stocks with the best risk/reward profiles. Two important themes: •The closer one buys a stock as it pulls back to a logical area of support, the less risk since one's sell stop is well defined. •The stronger the prior price move in the stock, the greater the odds of the stock continuing to exhibit such price strength when it launches again.

"A big trading score requires far more than the desire to make it happen, perseverance, incredible patience, discernment, boldness and the right trading tactics. It requires the right markets at the right time in a trader’s career – and that is largely a function of luck. Without the intervention of providence no amount of desire/boldness/trading tactics will make it happen."

Deutsche Bank

 DB is trading near all-time lows, well below the lows it reached in the debt crisis of 2008. DB is currently approximately 92% off its prior highs reached in 2007.

"study covered the 88-year period from 1927 to 2014 ~ evidence that supports the view that time-series momentum (also referred to as trend-following) is one of the few investment factors that meet five important criteria for inclusion in a portfolio"

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-persistent-kind-momentum?nopaging=1

"momentum is clearly based on behavioral explanations, including herding, anchoring, confirmation bias and the disposition effect. Because momentum has performed well historically, it’s clear that these behavioral biases have likely existed for a long time. And human behaviors tend to persist even after the biases are discovered and made well known. After all, that’s what makes us human."

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-why-momentum-struggling?nopaging=1

It’s that time of year when stocks are usually weak and often strength does not return until mid-October when earnings start to come out again.

Trend is still down. Enjoy the ride.

               looks like we'll finish with an inside day at weekly support area

What do you think? Time to .....

Trend is now down. Enjoy the ride.

PVG.TO : hello

      now looks like a two legged pullback in a bull move with DB and a LLMTR, and acting like a buyable 50% retracement from the prior leg up, possible support area

The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as an offer to hold, sell or an offer to buy any securities.

markets now

 AT SUPPORT

?

"Ordinary efforts tire us. Extraordinary efforts in the service of deeply held ideals energize us. When we tackle extreme challenges for extremely meaningful causes, we tap into hidden wellsprings of energy. It is that second wind that fuels outstanding performance and creative achievement."

Robert FREY - 180 years of Market Drawdowns

 180 years of Market Drawdowns


“Most of the time even when we are in a good investment, we are in a state of regret."

“You are going to bed with an upset stomach because you have lost money most of the time and do not know what is going to happen”

“You are in a drawdown state 80% of the time and of that, you are in a severe drawdown state (greater than -20%) 67% of the time”

“Most of the time an investor is facing a market of regret…”

Trend is up to sideways. Enjoy the ride.

                             

  is this a finl flag and a beginning of a pullback or it's going to go higher first before it corrects, could keep going sideways for a bit more here,  let the market tell you what to do

gbpnzd

Choose yourself | James Altucher | TEDxSanDiego

GBPNZD

       

possible reversal; a low probability and high risk reward opportunity, success rate 40%

            The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as an offer to hold, sell or an offer to buy any securities.
                   

Trend is still up. Enjoy the ride.

Black Swan rally?

"Everyone knows that the Emini needs a pullback after so many weeks up without one. The stops are far below. Bulls have big open profits. They have to reduce risk, and the easiest way is to take profits. That selling creates the pullback. Whenever anything is obvious, traders need to pay particular attention to the opposite.

When there is high probability one way, there is low probability the other way. Hence, everyone ignores the low probability direction. If the market begins to go in the low probability direction, traders are in denial. However, this results in bears trapped in as they sell new highs. Bulls don’t buy because they also think the rally will fail.

However, even a little rally can be enough to quickly make the bulls and bears worried. Both will begin to buy, and then buy in a panic. Hence, the low probability event can quickly turn into a rally that can continue up for a long time. Bears keep selling, picking tops, bulls keep scalping out. Yet, there is not enough selling to turn the market down. Bulls and bears therefore have to keep buying as the market goes up. Sometimes the buying is climactic. Other times it is a small pullback bull trend. If the Emini continues up above 2220, it might go up to 2400 before pulling back."

"Momentum investors are like the surfers we watch from beaches along the Pacific coast. Both must catch a wave. Both attempt to ride it as it breaks. But the ability to glide away smoothly before being caught inside the inevitable crash(ing wave) that follows is what determines success."

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/how-not-wipe-out-momentum?nopaging=1

You have to remain humble, especially when things are going well because no one knows what’s going to happen or how long success will last.

looking at charts, it's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see, and what does it mean to you, and what are you going to do about it

Nassim Taleb, of “Black Swan” fame, was asked, “What are the biggest risks out there right now?” He replied:

The fact that the world, as a result of quantitative easing, has seen an asset inflation that benefited the uber-rich, and that nothing has been cured. One cannot cure debt with debt, by transferring from private to public sectors. The markets will ultimately crash again, although this time it will hurt a lot more people.

Trend is still up. Enjoy the ride.

                             Most sectors remain in uptrends like the market itself. 

To be successful, you must at this moment decide exactly what your goal is and lay out the steps by which you plan to reach it.

Research
Idea generation
Trade structuring
Position / Risk management 
Portfolio / Risk management
Self management
Performance management

Trend is still up. Enjoy the ride.

the best book on trend following

"If you take risks and face your fate with dignity, there is nothing you can do that makes you small; if you don't take risks, there is nothing you can do that makes you grand, nothing."

"Failure is a trickster with a keen sense of irony and cunning. It takes great delight in tripping one when success is almost within reach."

BOX

                                   inverted H&S

The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as an offer to hold, sell or an offer to buy any securities.

“Risk is a no-fooling around game; it does not allow for mistakes. If you do not manage the risk, eventually they will carry you out.”

"the best predictor of long-term returns is the presence of a well-considered, rational decision-making process that displays a deep understanding of the dynamics of the marketplace"

You choose

Yes, exit strategies are very important part of trading strategy

“Your own psychology is likely to contribute more to your success than your system.”

What do people do?

Trying to predict the future is futile and runs counter to making money in the markets.

new issue

                    stalking

Trend is up. Enjoy the ride.