The Easy Money is Over

This year has been a dream run for the markets, one of the most favorable periods I can recall. Let’s break it down:

• Low Volatility: Markets stayed calm, making it easier to hold positions.
• Strong Uptrend: An almost unstoppable climb lifted nearly everything.
• Dip Buying: Every pullback turned into an opportunity for quick gains.
• Speculation Thrived: High-risk names soared to unbelievable heights.

The market likely covered if you were leveraged, had a messy strategy, or made avoidable mistakes. That’s the nature of a bull market—everyone looks like a genius.

But next year will be different.

Here’s the personal reality check:

• Stay Humble: If you made big profits, don’t let it get to your head. Overconfidence kills in a changing market.
• Stay Vigilant: The easy trend might be over. Winning next year will require sharper strategies and better discipline.
• Put in the Work: If you didn’t capitalize this year, take it as motivation. Success comes to those who learn and adapt.

The bottom line: Complacency is a killer. The markets will always test you. Be ready, humble, patient, and evolving.

Enjoy the ride!

Thanks to all of you, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Yesterday's Fed announcement, and that baffling press conference after, just reset the game for the months ahead.

A new era dawns, rewriting the rules of the market game—

With the recent U.S. election, there’s been a big shift from left to right. If history tells us anything, though, these swings back and forth aren’t new; they’ve repeatedly shown up in American politics. A great read that dives into the timing and impact of these shifts is The Cycles of American History by historian Arthur Schlesinger. He noted that these political tides tend to move in roughly 18-year cycles, though it seems to be speeding up a bit in recent years.

For us as traders, there’s an opportunity here. These shifts bring new winners and losers in the business world. Not every company will benefit; some will ride the wave, while others will struggle. That’s where a solid strategy and selective stock picking come in—keeping ourselves on the “right side of the road” will be key in navigating what’s next.